11 Comments
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Kenny's avatar

Is there a possibility of correlation between "Starter pitches deeper into game" and "opposing offense is weaker" (and the inverse of "Starter leaves game early" and "opposing offense is stronger") that helps explain the Bullpen ERAs in each instance?

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Dylan's avatar

Would think there’s at least some signal there

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Daniel Evensen's avatar

Without jumping into the math, I’ll say this: baseball is really the only sport where the most crucial moments usually don’t feature the best players.

Chances are really good that you’ll have some relief pitcher pitching against a pitch hitter in the late innings of a close game.

Sure, there are well-known closers — but they tend to be primadonnas, and, when you realize most of them only work an inning at a time, are likely overrated.

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Gary Maske's avatar

How often do we see a pitcher pitch well into, say, the 6th inning, give up a bloop single and a double, get pulled, and the floodgates open on the fresh reliever? Managers are doing the "safe" thing but perhaps not the smartest thing. Maybe it's the hitters that have awakened? Has anyone tracked BA by the number of the hitter's at-bat?

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Gary Maske's avatar

How often do we see a pitcher pitch well into, say, the 6th inning, give up a bloop single and a double, get pulled, and the floodgates open on the fresh reliever? Managers are doing the "safe" thing but perhaps not the smartest thing. Maybe it's the hitters that have awakened? Has anyone tracked BA by the number of the hitter's at-bat?

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Gary Maske's avatar

How often do we see a pitcher pitch well into, say, the 6th inning, give up a bloop single and a double, get pulled, and the floodgates open on the fresh reliever? Managers are doing the "safe" thing but perhaps not the smartest thing.

Expand full comment
Gary Maske's avatar

How often do we see a pitcher pitch well into, say, the 6th inning, give up a bloop single and a double, get pulled, and the floodgates open on the fresh reliever? Managers are doing the "safe" thing but perhaps not the smartest thing.

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ogc's avatar

Great analysis of this situation!!! When I saw this idea, it sounded good on the surface, but I couldn’t think of what could go wrong, and you brought out a ton of stuff that might go wrong, great job! Thanks!

Not that it’s bad, but it would also end the use of openers as well as any tandem starts.

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Kyle's avatar

You worked your butt off on this! Well done.

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Mark Kolier's avatar

Great detail and well presented!

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Mason Linken's avatar

Great read!

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